It is estimated that Kazakhstan will consume an average of 3% more electricity each year. At the same time, electricity generation capacity will also grow, but production is not expected to increase in proportion to consumption.
By 2029, electricity consumption is expected to increase to 146 billion kWh, up 20.5% from 121.1 billion kWh in 2022. In contrast, electricity generation is expected to increase by only 17.6%. According to long-term estimates, Kazakhstan’s electricity deficit is expected to be 5.5 billion kWh in 2029.
Kazakhstan relies mainly on thermal power plants for electricity generation, which account for up to 66% of total generation capacity. Production at thermal power plants in the first four months of 2024 even fell by 8.7% year-on-year compared to the same period. However, the share of generation in condensing power plants increased from 2 kWh to 38.6 kWh, offsetting the decline in generation from thermal power plants. Similarly, generation at hydroelectric power plants grew from 25.7 to 30.4 kWh.
Energy generated from renewable sources accounts for only 5%.
The Kazakh government is therefore trying to find a solution to gradually increase generation capacity.
The decision of the Kazakh and Russian governments to sign an agreement on the construction of three thermal power plants in Kazakhstan therefore fits into the context. They are to be located in the cities of Kokshetau with a capacity of 240 MW, Semey and Ussht-Kamenogorsk with a capacity of 360 MW each. Two of these plants should start operating in 2027 and the plant in Uss’k-Kamenogorsk should start generating power in 2028.
Construction is valued at EUR 2.78 billion. It will be built by the domestic company Samruk-Energo and the Russian company INTER PAO – EXPORT.
Production and demand forecasts.
Share of each region of Kazakhstan in production. Share of each type of power plant
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